Atlantas self-determined identity is its run game, and nowhere is the first down difference between wins and losses more dramatic than in the run game.

byMatt Haley&Taylor Garner

FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. Inconsistency has plagued the Falcons' offense through the first eight weeks of the season. When firing on all cylinders, the unit has paid off the promise of its immensely talented personnel. However, when things aren't working like a well-oiled machine, the results have been maddeningly inconsistent.

The quickest way for the team to find a rhythm both week to week and play to play is to find its footing on first down.

Overall, the Falcons are averaging 1.62 points per drive. That ranks 28th in the NFL this season and is the lowest output by the team through its first seven games since 2023 (1.49).

In wins, that number climbs to 2.42 (20th), with the Falcons scoring on nearly 50% of their drives. In losses, Atlanta's points per drive and scoring rate drop sharply to 0.98 and 19.5%, respectively. While red zone stalls are evident in these numbers, the culprit of Atlanta's offensive malaise has been first down.

Atlanta has been markedly more successful on first downs in wins than in losses. Using Microsoft Copilot to sort first-down data from Tru Media, we can see the Falcons' first-down success rate is 10 percentage points higher (46.6% vs. 36.5%) in wins compared to losses. This indicates that first down success is a strong predictor of game outcome.

In wins, the Falcons have averaged 7.1 yards per play on first down compared to 4.7 yards in losses. Atlanta isn't just outgaining itself on first downs in wins but also producing more explosive plays.

The Falcons rank second in the league in yards per rush (6.8) and seventh in yards per attempt (9.9) on first down in wins, compared to 21st (3.8) and 30th (5.6) in losses.

In their three wins, the Falcons have totaled 15 explosive plays, runs of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, on first down while boasting the fourth-highest first-down explosive play rate in the NFL (17%). In losses, Atlanta's explosive play rate drops to 9.6% with just 10 explosive plays on first down.

Additionally, the Falcons have nearly 10% more plays of zero or negative yards on first down in losses compared to wins.

Atlanta's self-determined identity is its run game, and nowhere is the first down difference between wins and losses more dramatic than in the run game.

In wins, the Falcons' ground attack has been dominant, more than tripling their per-game output compared to losses. Atlanta ranks second in the league in rush EPA on first downs in wins (+11.15) but falls to 29th in losses (-12.53). The fits and starts of the offense are reflected in the team's overall EPA per play on first downs (-0.07), but the team's poor rushing performances in its four losses have made a significant impact.

The Falcons have generated +0.05 EPA per play in wins compared to -0.17 in losses. Essentially, Atlanta wins when it runs the ball efficiently, especially on first down.

In terms of the pass game, yardage numbers are similar between wins and losses, but that is likely a result of shifting to dropback-heavy game scripts based on the score. A closer look shows that Atlanta's net yards per attempt (passing yards minus sack yards) increases from 5.5 in losses to 8.8 in wins.

In a bit of a surprise, the offense sees an increase in sack rate (11.5% vs. 1.8%) and interception rate (3.8% vs. 0%) in wins compared to losses. This suggests that when the Falcons are efficient on first down, they are more aggressive and will push the ball downfield with greater frequency.

We often hear coaches and players talking about the importance of getting the first 1st down on a drive. That allows the offense to find a groove, open up the playbook and take more risks because the defense wears down with each additional play and you've changed the field position calculus.

That starts on first down.

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